Exploring Bayes' Theorem
- David Radcliffe
This GeoGebra worksheet can be used to explore the following problem, which is a classic application of Bayes' theorem: If a person tests positive for a disease, what is the probability that he or she is actually infected? The user can enter the following quantities by using the input boxes or the sliders: Incidence is the percentage of the general population that is infected. False positive rate is the probability that a person who is not infected will test positive for the disease. False negative rate is the probability that a person who is infected will test negative for the disease. The pie chart shows the conditional probability that a person is infected given that he or she tests positive for the disease.